An advanced statistical
model, created by the professor of mathematics at Columbia University,
has crunched the numbers of the Premier League and given a fascinating
insight as to how the campaign would finish.
England’s top flight now suspended until at least April 3, a mist of
uncertainty now shrouds the Premier League, with so many variables yet
to be decided.
Despite holding the biggest ever points
margin at this point of the season, Liverpool are two victories away
from officially clinching the title. Chelsea, Manchester United,
Sheffield United and Wolves are still battling for European places,
while only six points separate the bottom five teams.
while options are discussed, a highly advanced mathematical formula used
by FIFA has already assessed the standings, and it’s safe to say
Liverpool fans will be pleased.
Indeed, with nine matches left to play, the league table would remain exactly the same as it does right now.
Julien Guyon has published his findings in the Times, showing that
Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool would smash through the 100-point barrier and
finish around the 106 mark; thus ending their 30-year wait to be crowned
kings of England.
mathematical model ‘takes into account the strength of the opponents
left to be played and the number of home and away games, shows that the
present standings of the table are the fairest reflection of the
During its creation, the model was inspired by the
Elo calculation method, which was introduced by the physicist Arpad Elo
in 1960 to rank chess players and is now used by FIFA to rank men’s and
women’s national teams.
Norwich, Aston Villa and Bournemouth
would therefore remain in the bottom places, and be condemned to a
place in the Championship next season.
despite their final run-in of fixtures against each of the relegation
candidates, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United would not
hypothetically take a late steal into the top four, but would instead
finish around three points behind Chelsea.
standings are not influenced by older performances or matches played in
other competitions, and only take into account previous 2019-20 Premier
League clashes into account.
Top flights team feel the
league won’t resume – if it does at all – until at least September,
causing a knock-on effect of delays.
A small window of space
has now been freed up in the football calendar however, after UEFA
confirmed that Euro 2020 would now be pushed back a year in order to
help the various European divisions.